Oscars predix: It's a close race, folks

This is the first year in a while that I genuinely have NO IDEA what film is going to win best picture. Well, that's a bit of an exaggeration - I have *some* idea of who's really in the running, but no idea which of the frontrunners is actually going to win. Not helping: the incredibly complicated system by which Oscar ballots are counted and the winner determined. With that said, here's my take on how the six major categories will play out.

BEST PICTURE

Will win: This is soooo tough. It'll most likely be either 12 Years or Gravity, with American Hustle a potential spoiler. But the way the voting works, who knows. At this time, I'm going with Gravity, even though in my heart I'm pulling for 12 Years.

Rooting for: 12 Years a Slave

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

Rooting for: Cuarón, unless Gravity wins Best Picture. Then Steve McQueen for 12 Years.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club, with Leonardo Di Caprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) as a possible spoiler and Bruce Dern (Nebraska) the dark horse.

Rooting for: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), though he's got no chance. Pity, really.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

Rooting for: Amy Adams for American Hustle. Didn't love the movie, but *she* was fantastic in it. Also, this is her fifth Oscar nomination - would be nice to give her a win some time. That said, Blanchett is also fantastic so I won't be sad if she wins.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club. This one you can take to the bank.

Rooting for: Leto - his was a tour de force performance that also managed to be genuinely, heartbreakingly moving. In another year, though, I'd be rooting for Barkhad Abdi, who made an unforgettable debut in Captain Phillips.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: It's down to the wire between Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) and Hollywood darling Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle). But I think Nyong'o will pull it out, partly because she's been a delight in her public appearances (which helps with the campaigning) but mostly because Lawrence won an Oscar last year for Silver Linings Playbook.

Rooting for: Sally Hawkins, who's not been in the conversation even though she's every bit as good as Blanchett in Blue Jasmine.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Another tough one, but I think American Hustle will edge out Her and Blue Jasmine.

Rooting for: Her, undoubtedly the most truly "original" and thought-provoking of this bunch.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: 12 Years a Slave

Rooting for: 12 Years a Slave