Oscar predix 2020

Wow, have I really not posted to this blog since last summer? Apologies, the back half of 2019 ended up being busy for me and when I did have time to write about movies, it was usually for Nathaniel Rogers' excellent blog The Film Experience. You can find my articles here.

But the Oscars are the one time of year I will never miss here, for better or for worse, even though I've missed more of the nominees this year than I usually do. (Having the Oscars so much earlier than usual doesn't help.) Based on what I have seen, I have mixed feelings about these nominations...on the one hand, it is true that the best pic/director lineup tilted very MALE (not just in who was nominated, but the subject matter of their movies) and the acting nods very WHITE, but on the other, it's been amazing to see the South Korean film Parasite ride its zeitgeist to a heap of major nods, including for both Picture and Director. One can't overstate what a huge deal this is for the Academy, which has never nominated a Korean film even for best foreign film, let alone best picture, despite the fact that South Korea has been producing some of the most interesting and critically acclaimed cinema in the world for a while now. Well, Korea's finally not only arrived, it's smashed through, Kool-Aid man style. It may be a one-off, but it's still a remarkable accomplishment.

Anyway, without further ado, here are my predictions for the major awardage this year.

Best Picture

Will win: 1917

Should win: PARASITE

Dark horse: PARASITE. ONCE UPON A TIME...IN HOLLYWOOD is still in the mix, but PARASITE has all the possible-upset buzz right now.


Best Director

Will win: Sam Mendes (1917)

Should win: Bong Joon-Ho, but I wouldn't begrudge Mendes

Dark horse: I don't see anyone but Mendes winning, but I suppose both Bong and Tarantino have long shots.


Best Actress

Will win: Renee Zellweger for JUDY

Should win: Haven't seen JUDY, so will not opine

Dark horse: ScarJo for MARRIAGE STORY


Best Actor

Will win: Joaquin Phoenix for JOKER

Should win: Haven't seen JOKER, so will not opine

Dark horse: Adam Driver for MARRIAGE STORY...but I'm 99% positive Joaquin has this one in the bag, especially since he's never won.


Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Laura Dern for MARRIAGE STORY

Should win: Haven't seen RICHARD JEWELL...but I utterly adored Dern, so...

Dark horse: People are saying ScarJo again (for JOJO RABBIT), but I say bollocks. Maybe I'm biased because I didn't think she was that good in that movie. (Her nomination for MARRIAGE STORY, on the other hand, was well deserved.)


Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Brad Pitt for ONCE UPON A TIME...

Should win: Pitt was great, but gotta give props to Joe Pesci for an uncharacteristically understated (and terrifically effective) performance in THE IRISHMAN. Also Pitt's character was really more of a co-lead.

Dark horse: None. This is Pitt's to lose.


Best Original Screenplay

Will win: Toss-up between PARASITE and ONCE UPON A TIME... but I think, especially if PARASITE doesn't win best pic, this (along with foreign film) will be its consolation prize.

Should win: PARASITE

Dark horse: It's weird to call Tarantino a dark horse in this category, but if it isn't PARASITE, it'll be his.


Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win: JOJO RABBIT (sigh...I just did not care much for that movie)

Should win: LITTLE WOMEN

Dark horse: LITTLE WOMEN