2023 Oscars predix

I'll be honest: it's been hard for me to get excited about this year's Oscars. That's largely reflective of my general lack of enthusiasm for the movies of 2022, not so much any particular beef with the nominations. Four of the Best Picture nominees were in my own top ten for the year, and two in my top five - not a bad batting average at all for the Academy. But for the most part this year's crop doesn't inspire the same depth of support that my favorites usually do. I'm simply not as emotionally invested this year; I haven't even seen all of the BP nominees, for the first time in at least 15 years. Sorry, Triangle of Sadness and Avatar 2, I just couldn't find the time for you, no matter how many glowing testaments I read to the brilliance of your social satire or your visual effects, respectively.

That said, it's the Oscars, so I can't not care at least a little; it's a reflex. And there are aspects of this year's race I'm very pleased about - most notably, the unexpected dominance of what was probably the most bonkers and most inspired movie I saw last year, Everything Everywhere All at Once. If someone had told me last year it was going to be the BP frontrunner, I'd have assumed they were smoking the same drugs the Daniels were when they wrote the script. But here we are, and I couldn't be happier.

Let's get down to brass tacks, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front, which might peel off just enough of both the international voters and the older, more conservative voters; The Banshees of Inisherin also has a fighting shot.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: The Daniels (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert), Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: The Daniels

Dark horse: Martin McDonagh, Banshees

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Seems to be down to Brendan Fraser, The Whale, and Austin Butler in Elvis, though my gut says it's going to Fraser.

Should win: Colin Farrell, Banshees, though I'd be happy with a Fraser win, and I'm also a big fan of Bill Nighy's lovely, delicate turn in Living.

Dark horse: Farrell

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: A real nailbiter between Cate Blanchett for Tár and Michelle Yeoh for EEAaO. I'll say Blanchett by a hair.

Should win: I haven't seen either de Armas' or Riseborough's performances, but Blanchett's is a master class in both playing a larger-than-life character and stripping her down to nothing - her best work since Blue Jasmine. That said...my heart wants Yeoh to win.

Dark horse: I really don't see it being anyone other than Yeoh or Blanchett

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: The one true lock of the night - Ke Huy Quan, EEAaO, both for the performance and for the comeback story of the year, if not the decade

Should win: Quan. He was the heart to Yeoh's soul in EEAaO, or maybe it was the other way around? He deserves the fairy tale ending to his fairy tale season. But first let me shed a tear for Paul Dano, who was incredibly NOT EVEN NOMINATED for his best-in-show performance in The Fabelmans.

Dark horse: None

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: A toss-up between veterans Jamie Lee Curtis and Angela Bassett; I think Curtis has the edge

Should win: They're all worthy, but my personal fave is Stephanie Hsu as the tormented daughter in EEAaO

Dark horse: Kerry Condon could sneak in for Banshees if JLC and Bassett split the "legend!" vote

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Banshees

Should win: EEAaO for sheer inventiveness

Dark horse: Eh, I think it's gotta be either EEAaO or Banshees

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: Women Talking

Should win: I'm not wildly jazzed about this category, but of this group I'd give it to Women Talking

Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front