2025 Oscars predix
In contrast to last year's Oppenheimer steamroller, this year's Oscars cap an ever-dynamic, wildly shifting race in which there are pretty much no certainties except for the fact that Kieran Culkin is winning Best Supporting Actor. It's definitely more fun this way, though hell on nerves if you've got any money riding on the outcome. Fortunately, I have nothing to lose but my pride; and I know I'll be in good company since I'm generally going with the (very tenuous) consensus picks. For a slightly broader range of opinions, I refer you to the collected predictions of my fellow Film Experience team members.
BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ACTOR
BEST ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
OTHER CATEGORIES
International Feature: I'm Still Here
Animated Feature: The Wild Robot, though Flow could upset
Documentary: No Other Land, though Porcelain War also has a good shot
Cinematography: The Brutalist
Editing: Conclave
Production Design: Wicked
Costume Design: Wicked
Makeup & Hair: The Substance
Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two
Score: The Brutalist
Song: "El Mal" from Emilia Perez
Sound: Either A Complete Unknown or Dune: Part Two; I keep waffling on this one
Animated Short: Haven't seen any of the nominees this year, but based on others' descriptions I'm going out on a bit of a limb and predicting Magic Candies. It's not the consensus pick but it sounds like it's the best of the bunch, and sometimes the best does win this category!
Documentary Short: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Live Action Short: A Lien
BEST PICTURE
Will win: Anora...probably?
Should win: The Brutalist, which could win.
Dark horse: Conclave
BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: Sean Baker, Anora
Should win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Dark horse: Corbet - and I'd think him likelier if I didn't get the sense that he's not as well liked as Baker and has sometimes come across as a bit too self-important.
BEST ACTOR
Will win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist.
Should win: I can't argue with a Brody win, though I would love to see Ralph Fiennes finally get an Oscar - and he was excellent in Conclave.
Dark horse: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown, though I really hope this doesn't happen. He was good but not nearly as good as either Brody or Fiennes.
BEST ACTRESS
Will win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Should win: I haven't seen The Substance (can't do body horror), so I'm not really in a position to say.
Dark horse: Folks are talking up Mikey Madison's firecracker star turn in Anora, and she does have momentum from recent precursor awards - but I think the real dark horse here is Fernanda Torres' quieter but equally powerful performance as the unlikely fighter of government oppression in I'm Still Here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Should win: Razor's edge close between Ed Norton's Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown and Guy Pearce's American tycoon in The Brutalist, but I give the very slight edge to Norton. He captures the soul of Seeger in a way that transcends mimicry, and that Chalamet never quite achieves with Bob Dylan. (In fairness, some of that is due to the way Dylan is written, or maybe even the way he actually is: unknowable.)
Dark horse: None
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez
Should win: Saldaña is eminently worthy, though my personal favorite of the five nominees is Monica Barbaro's knockout turn as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown.
Dark horse: Some are saying Isabella Rossellini will get a career nod for Conclave, but I just don't think she was given enough to do to overcome Saldaña (who was arguably more of a co-lead).
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: Anora
Should win: A Real Pain
Dark horse: A Real Pain
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Conclave
Should win: Nickel Boys
Dark horse: A Complete Unknown
OTHER CATEGORIES
International Feature: I'm Still Here
Animated Feature: The Wild Robot, though Flow could upset
Documentary: No Other Land, though Porcelain War also has a good shot
Cinematography: The Brutalist
Editing: Conclave
Production Design: Wicked
Costume Design: Wicked
Makeup & Hair: The Substance
Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two
Score: The Brutalist
Song: "El Mal" from Emilia Perez
Sound: Either A Complete Unknown or Dune: Part Two; I keep waffling on this one
Animated Short: Haven't seen any of the nominees this year, but based on others' descriptions I'm going out on a bit of a limb and predicting Magic Candies. It's not the consensus pick but it sounds like it's the best of the bunch, and sometimes the best does win this category!
Documentary Short: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Live Action Short: A Lien