2024 Oscars predix

For a fantastic year in movies that yielded one of the strongest Oscar Best Picture nominee lineups in recent memory, the actual Oscars race is turning out to be a bit of a snoozefest. Oppenheimer has steamrolled its competitors all season and is almost certainly taking home the most awards (including picture and director) tonight. All of the acting awards are pretty much locked up, and while the screenplay awards have a little more room to surprise, they're trending towards heavy favorites. Still, I can't complain too much given the high quality of most of the nominees and likely winners. I just hope the ceremony offers some unexpected moments (in a good way), since the awards themselves aren't likely to provide any.

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Oppenheimer

Should win: My personal favorites were The Holdovers and American Fiction, but I think Oppenheimer would be a worthy winner.

Dark horse: There just isn't one this year.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Should win: Nolan - this is his best film in a long time.

Dark horse: Once again, there isn't one. Nolan or bust.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer, which surprises me a bit since it's a very good but very reserved performance. Yet he's been dominating all the precursor awards.

Should win: Look, I'm a longtime Murphy fan, but I would give this to Paul Giamatti for career-best work in The Holdovers. Even better would be a tie between Giamatti and Jeffrey Wright, who also delivered career-best work in American Fiction. And honestly, I'm a little sad Bradley Cooper never really got any traction for Maestro.

Dark horse: Again, none, though Giamatti still has a tiny sliver of a chance of an upset.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Should win: Where the fuck is Margot Robbie for Barbie?

Dark horse: Emma Stone could still win for her tour de force performance as woman-child Bella Baxter in Poor Things, but my gut says the Oscar's going to Gladstone.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

Should win: Ryan Gosling, Barbie - though I am sad Willem Dafoe did not get nominated for his lovely turn in Poor Things.

Dark horse: None

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Should win: Randolph, although I haven't seen The Color Purple (Danielle Brooks was nominated) or Nyad (Jodie Foster).

Dark horse: None

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Anatomy of a Fall

Should win: Anatomy of a Fall

Dark horse: Past Lives

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: American Fiction (I'm switching last minute from Oppenheimer since most of the pundits seem to be saying AF, which would be just dandy with me!)

Should win: American Fiction

Dark horse: Poor Things

Other Categories

International Feature: The Zone of Interest

Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron, though Across the Spider-verse could overtake it

Documentary: 20 Days in Mariupol

Cinematography: Oppenheimer

Editing: Oppenheimer

Production Design: Poor Things, though Barbie could sneak in here

Costume Design: same

Makeup & Hair: Maestro

Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One

Score: Oppenheimer

Song: Billie Eilish, "What Was I Made For?" - Barbie

Sound: Oppenheimer

Animated Short: War is Over!

Documentary Short: No idea, but others seem to be predicting The Last Repair Shop so I'll go with that.

Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar - check it out on Netflix, it's delightful!