2021 Oscars predix

What a long, strange year it’s been, for the Oscars as much as for everything else. Delayed by the pandemic, the awards are finally being given out tonight. I’ve no doubt the ceremony’s ratings will be in the toilet and that whatever the outcome of any specific races, the media will pontificate on how irrelevant the Oscars are in this age of Disney/Marvel-ization on the one hand and cultural hyperfragmentation on the other, and how “no one” has even heard of, let alone seen or been talking about, any of the nominees. (Hell, they’ve already been nattering about that.)

But you know what? That’s what they say every year, and yet the Oscars continue to hold relevance for those of us outside Hollywood who care about movies—and we still exist in significant, if declining numbers. For a long time now, the Oscars have never been about honoring movies that everyone already knows about; their main value is highlighting films that are less publicly visible, even if the Academy’s final selections regularly elicit their fair share of sighs and eyerolls. And the fact is that this year’s slate of nominees, despite or perhaps because of the absence of high-profile, big box office contenders, is one of the best in recent memory, as well as one of the most diverse. That 2020* was such a strong year for film, notwithstanding COVID and its decimating impact on theaters, is definitely worth celebrating, even with reduced pomp and general public attention.

(*into early 2021, per extended Oscar eligibility period)

For those of you who will be watching tonight or at least tracking the results, here are my predictions for the winners. They’re tough this year!

BEST PICTURE (You can find my rundown of all the BP nominees here)

Will win: Nomadland, though The Trial of the Chicago 7 definitely has a strong chance

Should win: Nomadland

Dark horse: Minari

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

Should win: Zhao

Dark horse: No one – this award has Zhao’s name all over it

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Chadwick Boseman, posthumously, for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (though I wouldn’t count out Anthony Hopkins, who’s tremendous in The Father)

Should win: Hopkins

Dark horse: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: ???????? Wildest and most unpredictable race - I genuinely have no idea. I think it will end up being either Viola Davis (for Ma Rainey) or Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman, but it really could be any of them. Andra Day has the classic Oscar biopic vehicle as Billie Holliday (and she sings, too!), but the movie is not well regarded and she’s a total acting newbie (though it’s a fantastic debut). Frances McDormand is wonderful in Nomadland but it’s a very quiet, understated performance and she already has two Oscars. Still, if the votes are closely divided, as I expect they are, it’s anyone’s game.

Should win: Mulligan

Dark horse: Again, I wouldn’t be fazed by any result, though Vanessa Kirby would be the biggest surprise. (Not based on merit – she’s great in Pieces of a Woman.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Should win: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal - first, it’s a beautiful performance, but second and almost as importantly, it’s the only truly supporting performance of this bunch. All the rest are leads or co-leads (a very common Oscar “cheat,” but especially egregious this year in this category).

Dark horse: No one – Kaluuya has this locked up.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Should win: Youn. My thoughts on why this performance was so good, and so personal for me here

Dark horse: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy - if enough voters feel like Close is overdue (especially after her heartbreaking 2019 loss as the frontrunner for The Wife)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Another tight race. Since this is the one category where the “edgiest” nominee actually can win, I’ll go with Promising Young Woman. I could also see Trial of the Chicago 7 winning because Sorkin.

Should win: Sound of Metal

Dark horse: Again, literally any of the nominees could win and I wouldn’t be shocked.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: It’s going to come down to Nomadland or The Father. I’m going with The Father because it really does an amazingly effective stage-to-screen transfer of director/playwright Florian Zeller’s play.

Should win: The Father

Dark horse: There isn’t really one, though in a less competitive year One Night in Miami would be a strong contender – it’s another excellent stage-to-screen adaptation by playwright Kemp Powers.

Also, in honor of my loyalty to the Oscars, this year I’m extending my predix beyond the eight majors to the rest of the awards.

Best Film Editing: Sound of Metal (though I could see any of the nominees winning)

Best Cinematography: Nomadland

Best Production Design: Mank

Best Costumes: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Emma also has a shot)

Best Makeup and Hair: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Visual Effects: Tenet

Best Sound: Sound of Metal

Best Score: Soul

Best Song: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

Best International Film (formerly Foreign Language Film): Another Round (dark horse: Quo Vadis, Aida?)

Best Documentary Feature: My Octopus Teacher

Best Animated Feature: Soul - this one’s a lock

Best Animated Short Film: If Anything Happens, I Love You (dark horse: Opera)

Other shorts (documentary and live action): No idea and haven't seen any of them, but based on what other folks are saying I'll guess A Concerto is a Conversation for doc and Two Distant Strangers for live action.

Happy 93rd Oscars, everyone!