2022 Oscars predix

It's Oscars time! In other words, time for the usual tiresome lobs of "irrelevant" and "who cares about movies no one's seen?"

We're also faced with the annoying though not completely off-base question of whether it makes sense to devote energy to something as frivolous as movie industry awards given everything awful that's going on in the world right now; this year we even get the extra treat of an international war and a bona fide nuclear threat! The only answer is that if we spent all of our waking hours doomscrolling or even actually trying to do something to avert or alleviate said horrors, all but the strongest of us would probably lose our damn minds. We need comfort and distraction where we can get it, whether it's movies and Oscars, March madness, or cats and travel pictures on Instagram. As long as we don't retreat permanently into our happy bubbles, I think they do us good. At least that's my justification for diving back into the weird micro-universe of Oscars handicapping!

But before I get into that, I must add my voice to the chorus of outrage at the Academy's boneheaded decision to cut EIGHT of the awards from the Oscars telecast this year: film editing, makeup and hairstyling, original score, production design, sound, and the three short film categories. Seriously, AMPAS? Cutting craft awards from the telecast is utter horseshit, and cutting shorts isn't much better if you're just going to fill that time with more comedy bits or musical numbers (which no one wants) or truly asinine ideas like recognizing Twitter "fan favorite" films. In fairness, this ire is more properly directed at ABC, who apparently freaked out at last year's ratings nose-dive and put heavy pressure on the Academy to cut even more awards. Regardless of who's primarily to blame, I'd like to remind all involved that YOU'RE NEVER GOING TO GET THE RATINGS YOU GOT 30 YEARS AGO, STOP TRYING, YOU'RE ONLY PISSING OFF THE PEOPLE WHO STILL ACTUALLY WATCH YOUR DAMN SHOW. Not that anyone's listening to me, or that plenty of others with more influence haven't made the same argument, to no avail. And I can't kid myself I won't end up watching despite my frustration.

Anyway, with all that off my chest, time to get predictin'...although this year's races are particularly uncertain. Good thing I'm not participating in a pool this year because I would have no confidence in anything other than losing my stake. But here are my picks, for what they're worth.

BEST PICTURE

Will win: CODA, though The Power of the Dog still definitely has a strong chance.

Should win: Either Drive My Car or The Power of the Dog

Dark horse: Belfast (once the frontrunner, then it swapped with CODA)

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Should win: Campion

Dark horse: No one – this is one of the few locks, notwithstanding Campion's recent cringetastic attempt at a joke with the Williams sisters.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Will Smith, King Richard)

Should win: I can't believe I'm saying this in a year when both of my longtime loves Andrew Garfield and Benedict Cumberbatch have been nominated, but none of them. This should go to either Oscar Isaac for The Card Counter or Nicolas Cage for Pig, and the fact that neither was nominated is a frickin' disgrace. That said, I'd be happy if either BC or AG won, not that that's happening.

Dark horse: No one. Smith is a lock.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Jessica Chastain, I guess? She seems to have the momentum, she's overdue for an Oscar, and no one can deny her commitment to the role of Tammy Faye. But unlike the other acting categories, this one is still very much a toss-up.

Should win: Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter, though Penélope Cruz would also be worthy.

Dark horse: Honestly, any of them could win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Should win: Kotsur

Dark horse: No one, especially with the two Power of the Dog guys likely splitting votes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Should win: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Dark horse: No one. DeBose has been steamrolling the precursor awards.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: I honestly have no idea. Smart money says either Belfast or Licorice Pizza, but the former is bland while the latter is baggy and problematic. Don't Look Up had a moment that seems mostly to have passed, but who knows.

Should win: The Worst Person in the World by a country mile.

Dark horse: The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: Another tight race. But CODA is peaking at just the right time, despite the fact that its writing is by far its weakest feature.

Should win: Drive My Car. What it does with the Murakami short story and its expansion of Chekhov's Uncle Vanya is brilliant.

Dark horse: Really any of them could win, though I'd be surprised if Dune did.

And the rest (I'm putting the snubbed-for-primetime categories first):

Best Film Editing: Most folks seem to be saying Dune, but I feel like it's going to get amply rewarded elsewhere so voters might want to give this to another nominee. No idea which one, though I hope it's Power of the Dog and not Don't Look Up.

Best Production Design: Dune (dark horse: Nightmare Alley)

Best Makeup and Hair: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Score: Dune

Best Sound: Dune

Short films (animated, documentary and live action): Didn't see any of them this year, but based on what others are saying I'll guess Robin Robin for animated, The Queen of Basketball for doc and The Long Goodbye for live action.

Best Cinematography: Either Dune or The Power of the Dog

Best Costumes: Cruella

Best Visual Effects: Dune, unless the Academy feels like throwing Spider-Man a bone

Best International Film: Drive My Car

Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul

Best Animated Feature: Encanto (dark horse: Flee)

Best Song: The song from Encanto, even if Disney didn't submit the one that ended up becoming really popular

Again, I make no promises any of the above are correct - except for makeup, costumes, international film, and doc feature, where I feel pretty confident. But I could still be wrong! That's the fun of the Oscars, telecast or no telecast.