2024 Oscars predix

For a fantastic year in movies that yielded one of the strongest Oscar Best Picture nominee lineups in recent memory, the actual Oscars race is turning out to be a bit of a snoozefest. Oppenheimer has steamrolled its competitors all season and is almost certainly taking home the most awards (including picture and director) tonight. All of the acting awards are pretty much locked up, and while the screenplay awards have a little more room to surprise, they're trending towards heavy favorites. Still, I can't complain too much given the high quality of most of the nominees and likely winners. I just hope the ceremony offers some unexpected moments (in a good way), since the awards themselves aren't likely to provide any.

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Oppenheimer

Should win: My personal favorites were The Holdovers and American Fiction, but I think Oppenheimer would be a worthy winner.

Dark horse: There just isn't one this year.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Should win: Nolan - this is his best film in a long time.

Dark horse: Once again, there isn't one. Nolan or bust.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer, which surprises me a bit since it's a very good but very reserved performance. Yet he's been dominating all the precursor awards.

Should win: Look, I'm a longtime Murphy fan, but I would give this to Paul Giamatti for career-best work in The Holdovers. Even better would be a tie between Giamatti and Jeffrey Wright, who also delivered career-best work in American Fiction. And honestly, I'm a little sad Bradley Cooper never really got any traction for Maestro.

Dark horse: Again, none, though Giamatti still has a tiny sliver of a chance of an upset.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Should win: Where the fuck is Margot Robbie for Barbie?

Dark horse: Emma Stone could still win for her tour de force performance as woman-child Bella Baxter in Poor Things, but my gut says the Oscar's going to Gladstone.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

Should win: Ryan Gosling, Barbie - though I am sad Willem Dafoe did not get nominated for his lovely turn in Poor Things.

Dark horse: None

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Should win: Randolph, although I haven't seen The Color Purple (Danielle Brooks was nominated) or Nyad (Jodie Foster).

Dark horse: None

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Anatomy of a Fall

Should win: Anatomy of a Fall

Dark horse: Past Lives

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: American Fiction (I'm switching last minute from Oppenheimer since most of the pundits seem to be saying AF, which would be just dandy with me!)

Should win: American Fiction

Dark horse: Poor Things

Other Categories

International Feature: The Zone of Interest

Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron, though Across the Spider-verse could overtake it

Documentary: 20 Days in Mariupol

Cinematography: Oppenheimer

Editing: Oppenheimer

Production Design: Poor Things, though Barbie could sneak in here

Costume Design: same

Makeup & Hair: Maestro

Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One

Score: Oppenheimer

Song: Billie Eilish, "What Was I Made For?" - Barbie

Sound: Oppenheimer

Animated Short: War is Over!

Documentary Short: No idea, but others seem to be predicting The Last Repair Shop so I'll go with that.

Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar - check it out on Netflix, it's delightful!

Top Movies of 2023

What a difference a year makes! About this time last year I was bemoaning my lack of enthusiasm for the movies of 2022, including most of the likely Oscar contenders. While there were a number of very good films that year, there just weren’t many that truly thrilled or delighted me. In 2023, by contrast, I felt like a kid in a candy store. It’s true that “Barbenheimer” aside, the year was back-loaded with nearly all of the best movies dropping in the last quarter. However, it felt front-loaded for me in that four of the films I saw at the Middleburg Film Festival in October ended up in my top five of the year. Even more tellingly, I would recommend the vast majority of the films I saw in 2023. There were a few disappointments (Killers of the Flower Moon among the most notable), but many more that met or exceeded my expectations. The result is a lot of “honorable mentions” that in another year would have made my top ten.

The usual caveats: I didn’t see any documentaries in 2023 – though I want to see Menus-Plaisirs: Les Troisgrois, Occupied City, American Symphony, and Anselm – or nearly enough foreign language films, which don’t usually stay long in theaters around here but tend to take longer to hit streaming. Still, I’ll stand by my choices any day. These films enthralled me, moved me, rocked me with laughter – sometimes all three. I share them in the hope that they did or do the same for you.

1. Tie:

AMERICAN FICTION

Writer-director Cord Jefferson delivers a gangbuster of a debut feature with this highly entertaining satire of the literary establishment and the politics of racial representation. Based on a novel written over 20 years ago by Percival Everett, it’s if anything even more current today; think less angry, more wry mash-up of Spike Lee’s Bamboozled and Radha Blank’s The 40 Year Old Version. Jeffrey Wright is outstanding as protagonist Thelonious “Monk” Ellison, a highbrow middle-aged black American writer who writes a ghetto porn novel as a bitter joke...only to see it meet with an effusive reception beyond his wildest imagination. This may be the funniest movie I saw all year; while the satire starts out quite broad, it develops more shading and nuance as it goes on and is deftly interlaced with the more realistic dramedy of Monk’s strained relationship with his family.

THE HOLDOVERS

In what may be Alexander Payne’s softest and sweetest film (in a good way!), Paul Giamatti delivers a career-best performance as a curmudgeonly terror of a history teacher at a boys’ prep school in the early 1970s. Stuck with looking after the few boys who are left behind to spend their Christmas holidays at the school, he builds a slow, mutually begrudging bond with the brightest and most troubled of them (Dominic Sessa), as well as the school cook (Da’Vine Joy Randolph) who’s mourning the death of her son in Vietnam. Both Sessa and Randolph are excellent, but it’s Giamatti who elevates the film to the next level. He somehow manages to be at once the antithesis of Robin Williams in Dead Poets Society and his natural heir – no mean feat.

3. ALL OF US STRANGERS

Andrew Haigh (Weekend, 45 Years, HBO’s Looking) once again confirms why he’s one of my favorite writer-directors working today. In his latest film, a London-based writer (Andrew Scott) finds himself visiting his long-dead parents (Jamie Bell and Claire Foy) – or incarnations of them at the point when he tragically lost them – around the same time he begins a relationship with his younger neighbor (Paul Mescal). The parent storyline is loosely based on a Japanese novel; the romance is all Haigh, layering on the perspective of a Gen X gay man whose personal and generational trauma have made it hard to open up to love. Both narratives eventually meld into a haunting, deeply poignant meditation on grief and missed connections. I’m making the movie sound like a downer, but it isn’t really; it works a strange magic that holds you in its grip right up to the end.

4. OPPENHEIMER

Amazingly for a film clocking in at 3 hours of (mostly) men talking, testifying, and writing on chalkboards, Chris Nolan’s take on the “American Prometheus” never once flags or drags; if anything, it’s almost too frenetic, especially initially, in its cross-cutting between different stages of Oppenheimer’s life. It does eventually settle down into a compelling portrait and Nolan’s best film in years. His depiction of the race to build the first A-bomb is particularly riveting, though he somehow manages to generate almost equally high drama and tension from congressional and security clearance board hearings. Boosted by a large and excellent cast, the film ultimately derives much of its power from Cillian Murphy’s spare yet magnetic performance as a man who for all the renown and intense scrutiny he drew remained a profound – and profoundly conflicted – enigma.

5. ANATOMY OF A FALL

Ostensibly a murder mystery and courtroom drama about a man who fell to his death (or was he pushed?), Justine Triet’s Palme d’Or winner is at its core an almost clinical dissection of a troubled marriage and the difficulty of reconstructing the truth from inevitably subjective and incomplete accounts. By turns chilling, harrowing, and unexpectedly funny, the film sharply underscores how impossible it is to truly understand a relationship from the outside – and sometimes from the inside, too. Sandra Hüller is terrific as the prime suspect, as is Milo Machado-Graner, the young actor who plays her son.

6. THE BOY AND THE HERON

As far as I’m concerned, Miyazaki can keep un-retiring if he continues to create films like this. A gorgeous, moving fantasy about a boy whose grief over his mother’s death leads him to a series of otherworldly adventures, it held me rapt from start to finish and also made me laugh out loud without ever breaking the spell. True, the ending felt a little rushed, and I never entirely untangled how the different worlds in the story were linked. But for me, at least, the film’s best experienced as a dream vision, which means figuring out its internal logic matters less than submitting to its surreal beauty.

7. POOR THINGS

In this retelling of Frankenstein through the fisheye lens of Yorgos Lanthimos, the “monster” is a female beauty (Emma Stone), appropriately named Bella, who provokes not terror but a desire to control her even as she stubbornly seeks freedom and self-actualization. Based on the novel by Alasdair Gray, the film’s a colorful funhouse romp, tricked out with characteristic Lanthimos deadpan humor, lots of sex, and a visually inspired reimagining of an alternate-universe, vaguely steampunk-ish version of Victorian-era Europe. It’s a fascinating watch, and Stone is fierce, fearless, and wonderful as the insatiable Bella, though the performance that affected me most was that of Willem Dafoe as her damaged and damaging, yet surprisingly sympathetic, creator.

8. ARE YOU THERE, GOD? IT'S ME, MARGARET

Despite never having read the Judy Blume classic, I fell in love with this adaptation, which captures all the joys and anxieties of being a pre-adolescent girl with both humor and empathy and not one whiff of preciousness or condescension. I expected no less from director Kelly Fremon-Craig, who previously wrote and directed the delightful The Edge of Seventeen and, as with that film, gets wonderful performances from her young stars – especially Abby Ryder Fortson as the titular protagonist. Rachel McAdams delivers fine supporting work as Margaret’s equally displaced and disoriented mother, and the film does a nice job evoking the cultural era (NY/NJ circa 1970) without letting it distract from the timelessness of the narrative.

9. MAESTRO

Say what you like about Bradley Cooper’s latest passion project (and it seems many have nothing good to say about it), I found it an impressive directorial and acting follow-up to A Star is Born. Less a biopic than a kaleidoscopic look at the life of Leonard Bernstein, its emotional fulcrum is his loving but complicated marriage to Felicia Montealegre (Carey Mulligan). Both Cooper and Mulligan are top-notch and really sell their characters at each point of their lives; the cinematography, too, is seriously virtuosic and rangey work that doesn’t feel like showing off so much as channeling Bernstein’s exuberance. It helps if you don’t treat Maestro as a movie “about” either Lenny or Felicia but about their relationship. On that level, I think it works beautifully.

10. SHOWING UP

With Kelly Reichardt, it’s always about the little things. Here she provides a glimpse of a few days in the life of an artist (Michelle Williams) who’s struggling to put together a show while dealing with the distractions of no hot water, tensions with her family and with her more successful frenemy (Hong Chau), and a wounded pigeon (yes, a pigeon). Like Reichardt’s other films, this one isn’t driven by plot – there isn’t really one – but by her unsentimental yet empathetic observations of a character, her community, and the dynamics therein. It’s the kind of quiet little film that sneaks up on you long after you’ve seen it and other, flashier movies have faded. It’s also a thought-provoking reminder of how much of making art is about...well, showing up.

Next 10 / Honorable mentions: Barbie; The Zone of Interest; Past Lives; Perfect Days; The Teachers’ Lounge; Fallen Leaves; Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse; Suzume; Joy Ride; Asteroid City

Also a passing word in defense of two blockbusters that weren’t: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and The Marvels. Were they great films? No. Did they need to be made? No. Still, both were both rollicking fun and didn’t take themselves too seriously, and both deserved to perform better than they did – especially the much-maligned Marvels.

And finally, a shout-out to two 2022 films that I did not see until 2023 but that would surely have made my top 10 for 2022 if I had seen them in time:

Return to Seoul

Cambodian-French director Davy Chou’s gorgeous air kiss of a film charts the fitful odyssey of a restless young Korean-French woman (Ji Min-Park), adopted by a French couple as a baby, who finds herself in Seoul and ends up looking for her birth parents. After that first visit, the narrative flashes forward, a few years at a time, to her subsequent return trips. Each time she brings a radically different outward persona but the same big question mark about what she really wants – an elusiveness that would be frustrating were it not for Park’s startlingly assured performance. The film’s vibes are part Lost in Translation, part Wong Kar-Wai, part Korean comedy of manners – but what Chou delivers is his own uniquely rich evocation of the disorienting experience of visiting one’s country of origin for the first time.

The Quiet Girl

In this tiny gem of a film, a young Irish girl is sent by her sprawling, largely uncaring family to live for a while with distant relatives; they treat her with simple kindness and attention, and she thrives under their care. And that’s it: the kind of small, quiet, precisely observed film that carefully avoids easy sensibility only to hit you with ALL THE FEELINGS by the end. I still tear up at the memory of the last line.

How Had I Never - 2023

For someone who loves movies as much as I do, there are a lot of well-known films – including way too many stone-cold classics – that I’ve never seen. There are a few reasons for these gaps, the main one being that I'm very bad about watching movies at home; I strongly prefer to see them in theaters. A corollary reason is that I invariably prioritize the hot new release that’s just hit theaters rather than the classic I’ve been meaning to watch for years. Nevertheless, I do try periodically – if sporadically – to play catch-up through home viewing.

This year’s “how had I never seen” list was shaped largely by two phenomena: (1) the end of Netflix’s DVD program (RIP), which resulted in a cascade of long-deferred DVDs from my queue; (2) my participation in online guess-the-movie games Framed and AFI’s Get the Picture, which regularly surfaced films I knew I should have seen but had not. The result is an odd mix of classic noir, French New Wave, Mel Brooks, silent films, and animated films. All were worth watching, though the three that really exceeded my expectations, as noted below, were Hayao Miyazaki’s My Neighbor Totoro, Buster Keaton’s Sherlock Jr, and Agnès Varda’s Cléo from 5 to 7.

**My Neighbor Totoro (1988) – Now my favorite Miyazaki. What I found most striking is how gentle it is, in the best possible way. It never makes light of the fears or fancies of childhood, but spins them into exhilarating and ultimately reassuring fantasy.

Hiroshima Mon Amour (1959) – My introduction to Alain Resnais. Frankly I found it a little hard to gin up sympathy for a woman whose great lost love was a Nazi and the new lover we never really get to know, but the two actors sell it, especially the great Emmanuelle Riva.

Laura (1944) – Was expecting something more like Rebecca; glad I did not know in advance about the main plot twist. Clifton Webb gives All About Eve's George Saunders a run for his money as the controlling, gay-coded web-weaver.

Close-Up (1990) – One of Abbas Kiarostami’s earliest and perhaps best-known “docufiction” films; plays like a straight-up documentary until you look closer. Thought-provoking.

Blazing Saddles (1974) – Some belly laughs for sure, but as always with Mel Brooks, I found the jokes hit-or-miss and the plot felt like an afterthought. I did, however, enjoy the literal breaking of the fourth wall. Also, unpopular opinion: I really don’t get Madeline Kahn or why people find her funny.

Rififi (1955) – Darker and more brutal than I was expecting for a 1950s heist film. But damn riveting, right up to the climactic mad drive and final shot.

Double Indemnity (1944) – Billy Wilder + Raymond Chandler + Barbara Stanwyck + Fred MacMurray (playing deliciously against type) + Edward G. Robinson (who very nearly steals the show) = seedy noir perfection.

Lilo & Stitch (2002) – Weirder than I was expecting, in a good way. Also not expecting the film would make me cry like a fool. Disney should make more movies like this.

Frankenstein (1931) – Weird tonal shifts in some of the village merriment scenes, but what you remember is the iconic scenes, which have lost none of their power even after almost a century.

Bride of Frankenstein (1934) – Slightly preferred to the original; it’s campier in some ways, but overall more tonally consistent, and the plight of the Monster cuts sharper and deeper.

Young Frankenstein (1974) – OK, I think this is the best Mel Brooks I’ve seen, though maybe that’s because it’s a pretty straight-up parody of both Frankenstein and Bride?

**Sherlock Jr. (1924) – What a delight! Meta before meta was really a “thing” in movies. The movie within the movie is sheer brilliance.

The Double Life of Véronique (1991) – Gorgeous, and not only because of Irène Jacob (although I don’t think anyone can watch this and not fall in love with her). The final reveal of the literal puppet master is a bit creepy, though.

A Fish Called Wanda (1988) – A fun caper, but as someone who grew up with a Yorkshire terrier, I found one of its running gags slightly traumatizing.

**Cléo from 5 to 7 (1962) – Oh, this was so great! My first Agnès Varda, and by far my favorite nouvelle vague film. Feels like it could have been filmed today.

Last Year at Marienbad (1961) – This film practically parodies itself as an overly rococo example of the Resnais brand of nouvelle vague. It is, nonetheless, haunting.

Modern Times (1936) – A classic for a reason; the social themes still bite today.

Kiki’s Delivery Service (1989) – The spiritual sequel to My Neighbor Totoro, with the same gentle sensibility if a touch less whimsy. This is appropriate, given that it’s about the transition to adolescence/ young adulthood.

2023 Oscars predix

I'll be honest: it's been hard for me to get excited about this year's Oscars. That's largely reflective of my general lack of enthusiasm for the movies of 2022, not so much any particular beef with the nominations. Four of the Best Picture nominees were in my own top ten for the year, and two in my top five - not a bad batting average at all for the Academy. But for the most part this year's crop doesn't inspire the same depth of support that my favorites usually do. I'm simply not as emotionally invested this year; I haven't even seen all of the BP nominees, for the first time in at least 15 years. Sorry, Triangle of Sadness and Avatar 2, I just couldn't find the time for you, no matter how many glowing testaments I read to the brilliance of your social satire or your visual effects, respectively.

That said, it's the Oscars, so I can't not care at least a little; it's a reflex. And there are aspects of this year's race I'm very pleased about - most notably, the unexpected dominance of what was probably the most bonkers and most inspired movie I saw last year, Everything Everywhere All at Once. If someone had told me last year it was going to be the BP frontrunner, I'd have assumed they were smoking the same drugs the Daniels were when they wrote the script. But here we are, and I couldn't be happier.

Let's get down to brass tacks, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front, which might peel off just enough of both the international voters and the older, more conservative voters; The Banshees of Inisherin also has a fighting shot.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: The Daniels (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert), Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should win: The Daniels

Dark horse: Martin McDonagh, Banshees

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Seems to be down to Brendan Fraser, The Whale, and Austin Butler in Elvis, though my gut says it's going to Fraser.

Should win: Colin Farrell, Banshees, though I'd be happy with a Fraser win, and I'm also a big fan of Bill Nighy's lovely, delicate turn in Living.

Dark horse: Farrell

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: A real nailbiter between Cate Blanchett for Tár and Michelle Yeoh for EEAaO. I'll say Blanchett by a hair.

Should win: I haven't seen either de Armas' or Riseborough's performances, but Blanchett's is a master class in both playing a larger-than-life character and stripping her down to nothing - her best work since Blue Jasmine. That said...my heart wants Yeoh to win.

Dark horse: I really don't see it being anyone other than Yeoh or Blanchett

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: The one true lock of the night - Ke Huy Quan, EEAaO, both for the performance and for the comeback story of the year, if not the decade

Should win: Quan. He was the heart to Yeoh's soul in EEAaO, or maybe it was the other way around? He deserves the fairy tale ending to his fairy tale season. But first let me shed a tear for Paul Dano, who was incredibly NOT EVEN NOMINATED for his best-in-show performance in The Fabelmans.

Dark horse: None

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: A toss-up between veterans Jamie Lee Curtis and Angela Bassett; I think Curtis has the edge

Should win: They're all worthy, but my personal fave is Stephanie Hsu as the tormented daughter in EEAaO

Dark horse: Kerry Condon could sneak in for Banshees if JLC and Bassett split the "legend!" vote

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Banshees

Should win: EEAaO for sheer inventiveness

Dark horse: Eh, I think it's gotta be either EEAaO or Banshees

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: Women Talking

Should win: I'm not wildly jazzed about this category, but of this group I'd give it to Women Talking

Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front

Top Ten Movies of 2022

Some years are better for movie lovers than others. 2022 was not one of the better ones. At least not for mainstream English language “prestige” fare, aka Oscar bait films, that get proper theatrical releases.

This was frankly a bit of a surprise for me, given how strong 2020 and 2021 were for exactly that kind of film. The dropoff could be due to a number of interrelated factors: delayed impact of the pandemic; the ongoing shift from theaters to streaming services for non-franchise films and character-driven dramas; and the broader decline of medium-budget prestige pics and the generally anemic box performances of those that do get released, which only feeds the other trends. But there’s also the simple fact that so many of the 2022 films that seemed promising on paper turned out to be critical duds. (I’m looking at you, Amsterdam, Babylon, Empire of Light, and The Whale – all of which I skipped due to poor reviews.)

Whatever the reason, the dearth of traditional awards contenders is reflected in the dominance of this year’s Oscar nominations by the delightfully out-there Everything Everywhere All at Once, German war movie/literary adaptation All Quiet on the Western Front, nihilistic chamber drama/black comedy The Banshees of Inisherin, and the action megablockbuster that “saved” the movies, Top Gun: Maverick. I saw those movies, and enjoyed or at least appreciated them. There were other bright spots, too, which I’ll highlight below. But for the most part, there were very few that I really loved or that knocked me flat. And that’s okay – like I said, some years are like that. I just hope it doesn’t turn into a trend.

First, before I get to the list for 2022: a special shout-out to two exceptional films that were technically released in 2021, but didn’t come to theaters near me until 2022. There are always a few of these – usually, as in this case, non-English language films – that fall between the cracks of my top ten lists. But particularly given what a weak year it was, I wanted to highlight them.

Compartment No. 6

I saw this tender and engaging little Finnish film – about a Finnish student who finds herself sharing a compartment with a young Russian laborer on a long train ride from Moscow to Murmansk, circa 1997 – the same day I saw Joachim Trier’s The Worst Person in the World (which, unlike Compartment, got Oscar nominated for Best International Feature). I liked both very much; yet Compartment is the one that’s lingered longest and that I think of the most often. It starts out as a kind of anti-Before Sunrise, as the two protagonists initially seem utterly incompatible – she’s reserved, gay, and worried about her relationship with her Russian girlfriend, while he’s an obnoxious boor who kicks things off by getting drunk and sexually harassing her. However, over the course of their journey they build a bond of affection and maybe something more. The movie really captures the drab, claustrophobic feel and forced intimacy of a post-Cold War Russian train, but also the unexpected moments of connection and camaraderie that develop as a result. It’s a wistful tribute to the idea that individual humanity and empathy can bridge gaps of nationality, class, and cultural identity.

Petite Maman

This tiny gem of a French film by Celine Sciama (Portrait of a Lady on Fire) centers on a little girl who meets and befriends a doppelganger in the woods outside her grandmother’s house. While that may sound creepy, it’s anything but. To say more would be to give too much away – not that that’s stopped too many other reviews from revealing the central conceit – except that the film itself doesn’t really try to hide what’s going on. It’s more interested in the emotional terrain explored by the girls, which ends up being both slightly melancholy and utterly charming.

And now, my top ten movies of 2022:

1. FIRE ISLAND

You heard it here: This is the best Jane Austen screen adaptation since the mid-1990s one-two punch of Amy Heckerling’s Clueless and Ang Lee’s Sense and Sensibility. Joel Kim Booster’s contemporary gay spin on Pride and Prejudice is, simply put, a delight. Come for the clever reimagining of the Austen classic and/or the satirical skewering of 21st century gay social hierarchies; stay for the sweet chemistry between Booster and Bowen Yang, who play the movie’s Lizzy and Jane (with a touch of Charlotte).

2. EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

An apt title for “the Daniels’” latest cinematic swing for the fences, wherein Michelle Yeoh, as a long-suffering laundromat owner named Evelyn, literally saves the world (all worlds) by channeling all of her character’s different existences across multiple universes. Wildly trippy, hilarious, exhausting yet exhilarating, it’s crammed with tributes to everything from moody Wong Kar-Wai romances to wu xia films to The Matrix and (I kid you not) Ratatouille. The result can feel overstuffed, but it holds together thanks to the wonderful performances of Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan as Evelyn’s husband, and Stephanie Hsu as her daughter/adversary. Ostensibly a multiverse action fantasy, at heart it’s a testament to deep familial love and, in particular, the complex relationship between an Asian mother and daughter. I guarantee you’ve never seen a movie quite like this before.

3. TÁR

Not just the tale of the downfall of a sexual predator or a vehicle for the great Cate Blanchett, Todd Field’s magnum opus is a satire of the classical music world, a ghost story/horror movie, and an unsparing but not completely unsympathetic portrait of a seemingly perfectly au courant woman who, without even realizing it, has fallen fatally out of step with her times. It’s nerve-jangling and, when you least expect it, cruelly funny; it’s definitely longer than it needs to be, but Blanchett is so mesmerizing you almost don’t notice. Field is careful to avoid telegraphing any judgment as to Tár’s (heavily suggested, never “proven”) guilt and whether her comeuppance is overdue justice or a byproduct of our social media-driven culture. Both could be true, and the fascination of the film lies in pondering whether it matters.

4. TOP GUN: MAVERICK

Yes, it’s just as much of a military recruiting poster and wish fulfillment fantasy of American machismo as the original TG was. Yes, it’s still centered on the bonding and conflict between white men, with women and POC in visible but ultimately dispensable roles. Yes, it hits all the beats you’d expect it to; yes, the airfighting sequences are the strongest element and the romance the weakest; and yes, Tom Cruise once again saves the day. And you know what? It was easily the best, most satisfying theatrical movie viewing experience I had in 2022. What’s most impressive is how it manages to take the same basic themes and narrative tropes as its predecessor and make it into something a thousand times better.

5. SHE SAID

Directed by Maria Schrader (who helmed the 2021 charmer I’m Your Man and the Netflix series Unorthodox), this dramatization of how NYT reporters Jodi Kantor and Meghan Twohey helped bring down Harvey Weinstein does an excellent job capturing the dogged shoe-leather work of investigative journalism in the grand tradition of films like Spotlight, The Post, and of course All the President’s Men. Zoe Kazan and Carey Mulligan are solid as Kantor and Twohey, as are the always-reliable Patricia Clarkson and Andre Braugher as Times editors Rebecca Corbett and Dean Baquet. However, the real show-stealers are the actresses playing Weinstein’s victims, especially Samantha Morton and Jennifer Ehle. In just a few scenes they capture the pain, fear, and impotent rage of all the women who were bullied and manipulated into silence by one powerful creep and the complicity of an entire industry.

6. AFTERSUN

The debut feature of Charlotte Wells stars Paul Mescal (my latest One to Watch, now an Oscar-nominated actor) and newcomer Frankie Corio as a young father and his 11-year-old daughter on holiday in Turkey, circa late ’90s. There’s no real plot here; this is a movie about remembering and how memories of a loved one can be at once indelible and fragile, vivid with emotional truth even as the facts are fragmented by unexplained blanks. Sequences of the unlikely pair’s vacation, idyllic on the surface while cross-hatched with small but telling tensions underneath, are intercut with glimpses of the daughter as an adult 20+ years later, trying to piece together her recollections of a dad she clearly feels she never fully knew. Quiet and lovely, the film reminded me a bit of Sofia Coppola’s Somewhere – but hits a deeper chord. Mescal and Corio have an appealing and believable chemistry that leaves a pang when their time together comes to an end.

7. DECISION TO LEAVE

Park Chan-Wook’s lush homage to Vertigo (and other Hitchcock films) may be less outré than some of PCW’s previous works, but still exhibits plenty of his stylized violence, twisted plotting, and dark humor. Some may feel, not unfairly, that it’s more style than substance, designed to seduce rather than endure. What gives the film is emotional heft, though, is the first-rate acting by Park Hae-il as an insomniac detective and Tang Wei as the murder suspect/femme fatale who becomes the object of his obsession. Their faces have stayed with me long after the details of their machinations faded.

8. THE FABELMANS

Steven Spielberg’s contribution to the ever-expanding “Director Looks Back at his Youth” canon, is less interesting as an autobiography of Spielberg than as a canny reflection on the incredible, at times discomfiting power of filmmaking. Gabriel LaBelle is compelling as the teenage Spielberg stand-in, and Michelle Williams may have gotten most of the awards attention, but for my money the perpetually underrated Paul Dano is the most affecting as the proto-computer engineer dad who tries to be supportive of his loved ones despite not really understanding what makes them tick. While the pacing is a bit uneven, the ending is note-perfect, thanks to a memorable cameo that film nerds will love.

9. THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN

Martin McDonagh goes back to his roots with this tale of human folly and existential angst, set on a remote island off the coast of Ireland in the 1920s, in which a brooding musician (Brendan Gleeson) abruptly cuts off his longstanding friendship with a nice dimwit (Colin Farrell) who stubbornly refuses to accept being ghosted. Not surprisingly for McDonagh, the script feels a bit like a play – think Waiting for Godot if Vladimir suddenly stopped speaking to Estragon – but opens up nicely with some beautiful cinematography and thematically significant references to the concurrent Irish Civil War. Farrell and Gleeson are terrific, with strong supporting turns by Kerry Condon as the dimwit’s much brighter sister and Barry Keoghan as the town misfit. Overall, it’s a moving if bleak – and unexpectedly bloody – meditation on mortality, relationships, and what it means to endure.

10. AFTER YANG

This gently futuristic parable about a family struggling to decide what to do with their failing android companion probes quietly yet thoughtfully into the big questions of mortality, humanity, our relationship with technology and how it impacts our relationship with each other. Like Kogonada’s other work (e.g., Columbus), it’s a beautifully composed meditation that both exhibits and requires patience and careful attention to detail. Its contemplative, measured tone put me in mind of Kazuo Ishiguro’s novel Klara and the Sun.

Honorable mentions: Women Talking; Turning Red; Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; The Woman King; RRR

Have not seen but want to see: Corsage; EO; Armageddon Time; Elvis; Marcel the Shell with Shoes on; Living; more than a few non-English language films or documentaries

Do not want to see, thank you: Triangle of Sadness; Avatar 2

Fall 2022 Movie Preview

If you thought the summer movie pickings were pretty lean this year, you’re not alone – notwithstanding the proclamation of movie-industry pundits that going to the movies is back, baby! Hollywood may have had a good summer, box office wise, but didn’t it seem like the only movie out there that anyone was talking about was Top Gun: Maverick? That’s no knock on Maverick, which was way better than it had any business being and hands down the most fun I’ve had in a movie theater so far this year. The fact is, though, that it didn’t have a whole lot of competition at its level, give or take a forgettable Marvel property here or yet another totally superfluous Jurassic Park World sequel there. And the counterprogramming options were even sparser, notwithstanding the modest charms of Marcel the Shell with Shoes On or Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (both of which I unfortunately missed in theaters).

Well, fear not, fellow movie lovers, for fall is here – and with it, the usual overflowing cornucopia of what, for lack of better phrase, I’ll call movies for grown-ups. Movies that require more active engagement but promise richer intellectual and/or emotional rewards in exchange. Movies that don’t need eye-popping FX (although there are a few of those, too) to draw us to a theater. In short, movies that make us truly excited to go to the movies.

Of course, guessing which of them will hit and which will miss is a fool’s game, even for those films that have shown at festivals (Sundance, Cannes, Venice, Toronto, Telluride, etc.). Festival buzz doesn’t necessarily translate into box office or awards season success, and there’s nearly always at least one major sleeper in every season. Nevertheless, based on what I know, here are the 15 films I’m most looking forward to this fall:

THE WOMAN KING - in theaters now

I have some qualms about the way this film appears to rewrite the history of the Agojie (aka the Dahomey Amazons, an all-female warrior army in 19th century west Africa), although it certainly can’t be any worse than what Hollywood’s done to many another chapter of history. But who can say no to watching Viola Davis kick ass as the leader of said army? Plus it’s directed by Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Old Guard, Beyond the Lights, Love and Basketball), who’s long overdue for broader mainstream recognition.

BROS - in theaters September 30

We’ve already had one near-perfect gay rom com this year (Fire Island), and I very much doubt anything can top it (no pun intended). However, this is the bigger-name, bigger-budgeted, more “mainstream” production that’s actually getting a theatrical release, and as such, seems like exactly the kind of movie to go see with a bunch of your friends (gay, straight, or anything in between or off the spectrum). Probably helps if you like Billy Eichner, who both wrote the movie and stars as the main character, an artsy type drawn to a hottie (Luke MacFarlane) he can’t quite believe he’s clicking with.

AMSTERDAM - in theaters October 7

Only Murders in…Amsterdam? Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, and John David Washington star in David O. Russell’s mystery-comedy-caper as a trio of BFFs who find themselves the prime suspects of a murder in the 1930s. That’s all I know, despite a snazzy-looking trailer showcasing a formidable if somewhat randomly assorted cast that includes Robert De Niro, Chris Rock, Anya Taylor-Joy, Rami Malek, Michael Shannon, Mike Myers, Zoe Saldana, Matthias Schoenaerts and Alessandro Nivola (both dimming down their natural hotness as a pair of menacing detectives), Timothy Olyphant, Andrea Riseborough, and Taylor Swift. The movie also basically confirms that Margot Robbie has become the new Jennifer Lawrence in terms of her ubiquity – though she should watch out for Anya Taylor-Joy, who apparently plays her sister(?) in this.

TÁR - in theaters (probably limited release first) October 7

Cate Blanchett got raves at Venice for her performance as a fictitious world-famous conductor whose past begins to catch up with her. Directed by Todd Field (In the Bedroom, Little Children), it promises a dark but riveting psychological drama. Noémie Merland (Portrait of a Lady on Fire) and Nina Hoss (the best German actress you’ve never heard of – see Phoenix stat if you haven’t) play Tár’s assistant and wife, respectively.

DECISION TO LEAVE - in theaters (probably limited release first) October 14

Park Chan-wook (best known here for Oldboy and The Handmaiden) directs this mystery/thriller/romance about a detective who falls for a woman (Tang Wei) who may have murdered her husband. Hitchcockian vibes, or just fucked-up PCW vibes? Either way, count me intrigued, especially since I haven’t seen Tang in anything since her sensational 2007 debut in Lust, Caution.

AFTERSUN - in theaters (probably limited release first) October 21

Earlier this year, after I proudly cited my 2012 post in which I pointed to Andrew Garfield, Benedict Cumberbatch, and Tom Hiddleston as actors to watch in the coming years, some friends asked me if I had my eye on anyone new now. Well, I give you Paul Mescal, a young Irish actor I’ve been monitoring with interest since his soulful turn in the 2020 Hulu miniseries adaptation of Sally Jenkins’ Normal People. He had a bit part in last year’s The Lost Daughter, but this year he has no fewer than three features coming out, including this one, in which a woman recalls a vacation she took as a young girl with her father (played by Mescal) and reflects on the difference between how she viewed him then vs. now. Cannes loved it.

N.B: Mescal’s other films this fall include God’s Creatures, where he plays Emily Watson’s troubled, probably rapey son, and Carmen, a contemporary musical retelling of the Bizet opera.

ARMAGEDDON TIME - in theaters (probably limited release first) October 28

Alfonso Cuarán’s Roma casts a long shadow. Following last year’s Belfast from Kenneth Branagh and The Hand of God from Paolo Sorrentino, we have more directors turning their lenses on their boyhood years. Steven Spielberg may be the most famous of this season, but the perpetually underrated James Gray (Ad Astra, The Lost City of Z, The Immigrant, and my personal favorite Two Lovers) also tries his hand at the genre with this tale of a young Jewish boy growing up in 1980s Queens. Anne Hathaway and Jeremy Strong play his parents, and Anthony Hopkins and Tovah Feldsuh his grandparents. (In the weirdest casting switch ever, Hopkins replaced Robert De Niro.) Also, Jessica Chastain has a cameo as – wait for it – Maryanne Trump? Warmly received at Cannes, though the Europeans have tended to like Gray more than we do.

CALL JANE - in theaters October 28

When this film, along with the separate documentary The Janes, premiered at Sundance earlier this year, critics commented on their timeliness – but I don’t think anyone quite realized just how goddam timely they would be. Like the doc, this film focuses on the Jane Collective, a network of women who helped other women get abortions in the pre-Roe v. Wade days. Elizabeth Banks stars as a housewife who ends up joining the network; Sigourney Weaver costars.

BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER - in theaters November 11

T’Challa (Chadwick Boseman) is dead, long live T’Challa. Glad they didn’t recast him, but very curious to see how the franchise moves on without him. At least the rest of the crew – Angela Bassett, Letitia Wright, Danai Gurira, Lupita Nyong’o, and Winston Duke (though no Daniel Kaluuya, due to filming conflicts) – are all returning, as is Ryan Coogler as director.

THE FABELMANS - limited release November 11, nationwide Nov. 23

Spielberg’s Roma (see above), but seems to owe just as much to Cinema Paradiso in the centrality of movies to the protagonist’s coming of age. We'll see the source of Spielberg’s demons, fascinations, and fixations (broken homes, lost boys, etc.), albeit thinly fictionalized and, I assume, more than slightly airbrushed. Nonetheless, the film got a rapturous reception at Toronto; Spielberg is nothing if not a master of pulling the heartstrings so effectively you don’t mind the manipulation. Michelle Williams and Paul Dano play little-Spielberg’s parents, Judd Hirsch his uncle, and Seth Rogen as a family friend; if early reviews are any indicator, Williams may finally get her Oscar (after four nominations but no wins). Tony Kushner co-wrote the screenplay with Spielberg.

SHE SAID - in theaters (probably limited release first) November 18

Spotlight meets Me Too (the Harvey Weinstein story, specifically), based on the book by NYT reporters Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey. Zoe Kazan and Carey Mulligan play Kantor and Twokey, and Maria Schrader (respected German actress and director who helmed the Netflix series Unorthodox and last year’s lovely romantic dramedy I’m Your Man) directs. Cast also includes Patricia Clarkson, Andre Braugher, and Samantha Morton. (November 18)

WOMEN TALKING – in theaters (limited release) December 2. I swear the juxtaposition here with She Said is entirely accidental.

Welcome back, Sarah Polley! I wish she would get back in front of the camera more often, but equally happy to have her behind it. This time she’s adapted the novel by Miriam Toews, in which a group of Mennonite women discover they’ve been repeatedly drugged and raped by the men in their Bolivian colony and meet to discuss what they should do. The powerhouse cast includes Frances McDormand, Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley, and Ben Whishaw. The premise sounds better suited to a play than a film, but I trust Polley and her actors to bring it to life.

THE WHALE - in theaters (probably limited release first) December 9

Brendan Fraser caps his comeback with an acclaimed turn as a morbidly obese man who seeks to make amends with his estranged daughter. Director Darren Aronofsky may also be back – or not, as some have criticized his portrayal of obesity as fat shaming. Regardless, Fraser is supposed to be terrific, and the film is sure to be better received than Aronofsky’s last two features, Mother! and Noah.

CORSAGE - in theaters (probably limited release first) December 23

Empress Elisabeth of Austria gets something of the Sofia Coppola-Marie Antoinette-esque treatment (this is a GOOD thing, in my book) only this empress is no lost little girl. Rather, as played by Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread, Bergman Island), she’s a jaded pushing-40 woman who knows the deal and is Over. It. Krieps reportedly aces the 19th century DGAF attitude and I am so here for it.

BABYLON - limited release December 25, nationwide January 6

Damien Chazelle returns to La La Land, only this time rewinding to the 1920s, when Hollywood was transitioning from silent to sound films. But this ain’t no Singin’ in the Rain or The Artist. Judging from the equal parts sumptuous and frenetic trailer, it looks more like a cross between Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Wolf of Wall Street, and Baz Luhrmann’s The Great Gatsby. While Mexican actor Diego Calva appears to be the protagonist, the film also features Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie in comic-satiric mode as fictional movie stars of the period. Hard to tell exactly what tone Chazell is going for - divine decadence, or shades of Sunset Boulevard? However, since he’s three for three with me (Whiplash, La La Land, and First Man were all among my top films of their years) I’m confident he’ll make it work.

Other movies of interest, pending reviews:

THE SON – Florian Zeller’s follow-up/companion (though not direct sequel) to The Father starring Hugh Jackman, Laura Dern, Vanessa Kirby, and Anthony Hopkins. Early reviews suggest it’s not a par on The Father, sadly, though the acting is good.

DEVOTION – Based on the true story of two Navy fighter pilots/wing men during the Korean War, one black (Jonathan Majors) and one white (Glen Powell, I assume much less smirky than he was in Top Gun: Maverick). Very promising subject matter, and Majors is an actor on the rise. Early reviews, however, have been a bit tepid.

EMPIRE OF LIGHT – Looks gorgeous (how could it not, with Roger Deakins as the DP) and Olivia Colman is reportedly superb as always, but early reviews of Sam Mendes’ latest have been mixed at best.

GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY – Supposedly better and tighter than the original. But the only returning character is Daniel Craig’s Benoit Blanc, whom I found to be the weak link of the first one.

WHITE NOISE – Think I should probably read the book first, and Noah Baumbach is hit-or-miss for me. Still, you gotta give him credit for going big with this one.

Should be interested but not really: THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN and TRIANGLE OF SADNESS have been tearing it up on the festival circuit and look well set up for major attention this awards season. However, I gotta say I don't really get the appeal of either Martin McDonagh or Ruben Östlund.

2022 Oscars predix

It's Oscars time! In other words, time for the usual tiresome lobs of "irrelevant" and "who cares about movies no one's seen?"

We're also faced with the annoying though not completely off-base question of whether it makes sense to devote energy to something as frivolous as movie industry awards given everything awful that's going on in the world right now; this year we even get the extra treat of an international war and a bona fide nuclear threat! The only answer is that if we spent all of our waking hours doomscrolling or even actually trying to do something to avert or alleviate said horrors, all but the strongest of us would probably lose our damn minds. We need comfort and distraction where we can get it, whether it's movies and Oscars, March madness, or cats and travel pictures on Instagram. As long as we don't retreat permanently into our happy bubbles, I think they do us good. At least that's my justification for diving back into the weird micro-universe of Oscars handicapping!

But before I get into that, I must add my voice to the chorus of outrage at the Academy's boneheaded decision to cut EIGHT of the awards from the Oscars telecast this year: film editing, makeup and hairstyling, original score, production design, sound, and the three short film categories. Seriously, AMPAS? Cutting craft awards from the telecast is utter horseshit, and cutting shorts isn't much better if you're just going to fill that time with more comedy bits or musical numbers (which no one wants) or truly asinine ideas like recognizing Twitter "fan favorite" films. In fairness, this ire is more properly directed at ABC, who apparently freaked out at last year's ratings nose-dive and put heavy pressure on the Academy to cut even more awards. Regardless of who's primarily to blame, I'd like to remind all involved that YOU'RE NEVER GOING TO GET THE RATINGS YOU GOT 30 YEARS AGO, STOP TRYING, YOU'RE ONLY PISSING OFF THE PEOPLE WHO STILL ACTUALLY WATCH YOUR DAMN SHOW. Not that anyone's listening to me, or that plenty of others with more influence haven't made the same argument, to no avail. And I can't kid myself I won't end up watching despite my frustration.

Anyway, with all that off my chest, time to get predictin'...although this year's races are particularly uncertain. Good thing I'm not participating in a pool this year because I would have no confidence in anything other than losing my stake. But here are my picks, for what they're worth.

BEST PICTURE

Will win: CODA, though The Power of the Dog still definitely has a strong chance.

Should win: Either Drive My Car or The Power of the Dog

Dark horse: Belfast (once the frontrunner, then it swapped with CODA)

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Should win: Campion

Dark horse: No one – this is one of the few locks, notwithstanding Campion's recent cringetastic attempt at a joke with the Williams sisters.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Will Smith, King Richard)

Should win: I can't believe I'm saying this in a year when both of my longtime loves Andrew Garfield and Benedict Cumberbatch have been nominated, but none of them. This should go to either Oscar Isaac for The Card Counter or Nicolas Cage for Pig, and the fact that neither was nominated is a frickin' disgrace. That said, I'd be happy if either BC or AG won, not that that's happening.

Dark horse: No one. Smith is a lock.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Jessica Chastain, I guess? She seems to have the momentum, she's overdue for an Oscar, and no one can deny her commitment to the role of Tammy Faye. But unlike the other acting categories, this one is still very much a toss-up.

Should win: Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter, though Penélope Cruz would also be worthy.

Dark horse: Honestly, any of them could win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Should win: Kotsur

Dark horse: No one, especially with the two Power of the Dog guys likely splitting votes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Should win: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Dark horse: No one. DeBose has been steamrolling the precursor awards.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: I honestly have no idea. Smart money says either Belfast or Licorice Pizza, but the former is bland while the latter is baggy and problematic. Don't Look Up had a moment that seems mostly to have passed, but who knows.

Should win: The Worst Person in the World by a country mile.

Dark horse: The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: Another tight race. But CODA is peaking at just the right time, despite the fact that its writing is by far its weakest feature.

Should win: Drive My Car. What it does with the Murakami short story and its expansion of Chekhov's Uncle Vanya is brilliant.

Dark horse: Really any of them could win, though I'd be surprised if Dune did.

And the rest (I'm putting the snubbed-for-primetime categories first):

Best Film Editing: Most folks seem to be saying Dune, but I feel like it's going to get amply rewarded elsewhere so voters might want to give this to another nominee. No idea which one, though I hope it's Power of the Dog and not Don't Look Up.

Best Production Design: Dune (dark horse: Nightmare Alley)

Best Makeup and Hair: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Score: Dune

Best Sound: Dune

Short films (animated, documentary and live action): Didn't see any of them this year, but based on what others are saying I'll guess Robin Robin for animated, The Queen of Basketball for doc and The Long Goodbye for live action.

Best Cinematography: Either Dune or The Power of the Dog

Best Costumes: Cruella

Best Visual Effects: Dune, unless the Academy feels like throwing Spider-Man a bone

Best International Film: Drive My Car

Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul

Best Animated Feature: Encanto (dark horse: Flee)

Best Song: The song from Encanto, even if Disney didn't submit the one that ended up becoming really popular

Again, I make no promises any of the above are correct - except for makeup, costumes, international film, and doc feature, where I feel pretty confident. But I could still be wrong! That's the fun of the Oscars, telecast or no telecast.