2026 Oscars predix

Woof, this is the toughest year I remember in a while for Oscar predictions! In at least half a dozen categories I have no idea who will win, and there are plenty more where I'm not entirely sure. Put it this way: this could be my worst prediction performance in years, so please do NOT rely on these if you are participating in an Oscars pool. And just to give you an idea of how all over the map the possibilities are, here are the collected and far from unanimous predictions of my fellow Film Experience team members.

BEST PICTURE

Will win: One Battle After Another

Should win: Sinners, which also could win (but probably won't).

Dark horse: None, this is going to be one of the two Warner Bros juggernauts. (Perhaps WB's last year of film glory, sigh.)

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Should win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners. There *could* be a Picture-Director split but I'm not betting on it.

Dark horse: Again, none.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Argh, I have no idea. The smart (or dumb?) money has been moving towards Michael B. Jordan for Sinners and away from Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme in recent weeks. I am caving and doing the same, but make no mistake, it could still be Chalamet. Honestly, it could be any of them at this point except maybe Leonardo di Caprio.

Should win: Where is Joel Edgerton for his lovely work in Train Dreams? Alas, not nominated in an exceptionally competitive year for best actor. In his absence, my favorite of the five nominees was Wagner Moura's soulful turn in The Secret Agent. But all of them were worthy.

Dark horse: Moura, The Secret Agent though again, I could see a scenario for any of the five winning.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet - the one prediction you can take to the bank.

Should win: Buckley fully deserves it, but curiously, my favorite of the nominees was Emma Stone in Bugonia, a movie I found kind of excruciating to watch. That said, I still think about it more often than other movies I enjoyed much more, which says something - and she's a big reason why, as I explained here.

Dark horse: Really none, but there will probably be a lot of votes for Rose Byrne in If I had Legs I'd Kick You.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Once again, I could see a path for any of them to win (except Jacob Elordi - no knock on him, he's very good in Frankenstein), though in terms of precursor awards and mathematical probabilities the frontrunner is Sean Penn for his heel turn in One Battle After Another. *However*, I'm going out on a bit of a limb and predicting Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value, for a few reasons: (1) Skarsgard is wonderful in the film, (2) he's a well respected long-termer in the industry (trust me, you've seen him in something) and has never won (or even been nominated) for an Oscar, whereas Penn already has two, (3) the Oscars voting body has grown increasingly international in composition and tastes in recent years (a very good thing), and that should help him out.

Should win: I consider Skarsgard a co-lead in Sentimental Value, so I would give this to either Benicio del Toro or Delroy Lindo for their excellent and *truly* supporting turns in One Battle and Sinners, respectively. They both manage to be laugh-out-loud funny while building in a layer of moral heft and weary life experience beneath the humor.

Dark horse: Lindo

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Another toss-up / three-way race between Amy Madigan's witchy lady in Weapons, Teyana Taylor's revolutionary in One Battle, and Wunmi Mosaku's healer in Sinners, but for now I'll go with Madigan.

Should win: I haven't seen Weapons, but my favorite of the rest is Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value. She has zero chance of winning, however.

Dark horse: Is there really a dark horse when three of the five nominees are plausible winners?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Sinners

Should win: Sinners

Dark horse: It Was Just an Accident, but this is very unlikely

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: One Battle After Another

Should win: One Battle After Another, though I also really like what Hamnet did with its source material.

Dark horse: None; pretty sure One Battle has this sewn up.

OTHER CATEGORIES

*NEW CATEGORY* Casting: Sinners

International Feature: Another tough one. It'll be either Sentimental Value or The Secret Agent. Lean very slightly towards SV at the moment, but could shift back before tonight!

Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters will keep on slaying.

Documentary (caveat - haven't seen any of the nominees): The Perfect Neighbor

Cinematography: One Battle After Another (though it could be Sinners)

Editing: One Battle After Another

Production Design: Frankenstein

Costume Design: Frankenstein

Makeup and Hair: Frankenstein

Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Score: Sinners

Song: "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters

Sound: F1, though don't count out Sinners.

Animated Short: The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Documentary Short: All the Empty Rooms

Live Action Short: A Friend of Dorothy