Thursday, February 24, 2005

My Oscars Predictions

Yep, it's that time of year again. This year's race is harder than usual to handicap, but for what they're worth, here are my predictions.

Best Picture
NOMINEES: "The Aviator," "Million Dollar Baby," "Sideways," "Ray," "Finding Neverland"
WINNER: "Million Dollar Baby" - though it's running a very tight race with the more technically dazzling "Aviator," MDB has more heart, which I think the Academy voters will recognize and reward accordingly.

Best Director
NOMINEES: Martin Scorsese ("The Aviator"), Clint Eastwood ("Million Dollar Baby"), Alexander Payne ("Sideways"), Taylor Hackford ("Ray"), Mike Leigh ("Vera Drake")
WINNER: Another close call between Marty and Clint, but I'm still betting on a Pic/Director split, with the previously winless Scorsese taking Director by a hair.

Best Actor
NOMINEES: Jamie Foxx, "Ray"; Clint Eastwood, "Million $ Baby"; Leonardo di Caprio, "The Aviator"; Johnny Depp, "Finding Neverland"; Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"
WINNER: Foxx, or I'll eat my hat. Not that I have any hats.

Best Actress
NOMINEES: Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"; Annette Bening, "Being Julia"; Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake"; Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"; Catalina Sandeno-Moreno, "Maria Full of Grace"
WINNER: This is the hardest one to call - ask me again at post time. Conventional wisdom appears to be tilting towards a second win for Swank, but I'm not ruling anyone out except Sandeno-Moreno. (Not holding my breath for Winslet, either. As among the other three, though, it's open season.)

Best Supporting Actor
NOMINEES: Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby"; Clive Owen, "Closer"; Jamie Foxx, "Collateral"; Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways"; Alan Alda, "The Aviator"
WINNER: Freeman. It's time.

Best Supporting Actress
NOMINEES: Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator"; Virginia Madsen, "Sideways"; Laura Linney, "Kinsey"; Natalie Portman, "Closer"; Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda"
WINNER: Either Blanchett or Madsen. I'm going with Cate, though I may change my mind.

Best Original Screenplay
NOMINEES: "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"; "The Aviator"; "The Incredibles"; "Hotel Rwanda"; "Vera Drake"
WINNER: Dude, I dunno. All I can say is I *wish* "Eternal Sunshine" would win...

Best Adapted Screenplay
NOMINEES: "Sideways"; "Million Dollar Baby"; "Finding Neverland"; "Before Sunset"; "The Motorcycle Diaries"
WINNER: "Sideways" - I'd bet good money on this one.


Random TV-related observation: "Lost" is a damn good show, and I'm lovin' the fact that it has two major Korean characters...but why is the non-English-speaking half of the couple the one who speaks Korean with an American accent?


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